FIRE 계산기

This calculator uses the safe withdrawal rate methodology derived from the Trinity Study (Cooley, Hubbard, Walz, 1998) and updated by subsequent research. The core principle: a diversified portfolio can sustain annual withdrawals of 3-4% of the initial balance, adjusted for inflation, over a 30+ year retirement period. FIRE Number = Annual Expenses × (1 / Withdrawal Rate). At the standard 4% withdrawal rate, this equals Annual Expenses × 25. At a more conservative 3.5%, it equals Annual Expenses × 28.6. Time to FIRE is calculated by solving for the number of years needed to accumulate the target portfolio, given a starting balance, annual savings, and expected investment return. The formula accounts for compound growth of both existing savings and regular contributions. Data sources: Trinity Study (Journal of the AAFCS, 1998), updated research by Wade Pfau and Michael Kitces. Historical market return assumptions based on long-term S&P 500 data. Limitations: The 4% rule was developed using US market data and 30-year retirement periods. For very early retirees (40+ year horizons) or non-US investors, a lower withdrawal rate may be appropriate. The calculator does not account for Social Security, pensions, or variable spending strategies that could improve outcomes.